Population Risk Tools
Health policy makers agree that chronic disease prevention is a chief priority; however, the link between how prevention can improve the health of the population and directly enhance health system sustainability has not been substantively applied. The challenge for decision makers is how to use available data to estimate the impact of prevention approaches on health and economic outcomes. To address this gap, our proposed work will foster collaboration amongst researchers and several different health decision makers.
Our multidisciplinary team from two provinces is working jointly to develop and use population risk tools (PoRTs) to support policy and program decision making for chronic disease prevention and high resources user (HRU) reduction. The Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) and High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT) will allow health system decision-makers to apply existing population health data to identify strategies that can minimize the impact of the chronic disease burden and high health care use.
The development of DPoRT marks an attempt at collaborating with regional and provincial health-related decision makers. DPoRT is capable of 10-year diabetes-risk projections for adults aged 20 years or older, and has been implemented, revised and adjusted to increase future effectiveness. CDPoRT and HRUPoRT population risk tools, are currently in development by Dr. Rosella.
Sample of CDPoRT and HRUPoRT Applications:
The tools will support health system decision makers as they weigh the costs and benefits of preventive strategies to determine which will yield the greatest health system benefits. We believe the strength of this application lies in working with multiple provinces and across various health sectors, which will demonstrate greater impact and generalizability and result in solutions that are integrated across the system, including the public health and health care sectors, both regionally and provincially.
To learn more about our work in this area, please see the following resources:
- Rosella L.C., Manuel D.G, Burchill C., Stukel T.A. A population-based risk algorithm for the development of diabetes: Development and validation of the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT). Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 2011; 65(11): 613-620. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X11015891.
- Bilandzic A., Rosella LC. The cost of diabetes in Canada in the next ten years: Applying attributable healthcare costs to a diabetes incidence prediction model. Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention in Canada. 2017; 37(2). Available from: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/hpcdp-pspmc/37-2/assets/pdf/ar-03-fra.pdf.
- Rosella L.C., Kornas K., Yao Z., Bornbaum C., Fransoo R. Stukel, T.A. Predicting high health care resource utilization in a single payer public health care system: Development and validation of the High Resource User Population Risk Tool (HRUPoRT). Medical Care. Online First. Available from: http://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/Abstract/publishahead/Predicting_High_Health_Care_Resource_Utilization.98688.aspx