In her new paper, using population health survey data, our Pop Health Analytics team member Meghan O’Neill, alongside, Kathy Kornas and Laura Rosella, predict the future burden of obesity in Canada among important population subgroups using OPoRT (Obesity Population Risk Tool). The development and validation of the prediction model was published in 2018 in response to the recent and steady increase in population obesity levels. The purpose of the tool is to provide estimates of the future burden of obesity which is necessary for understanding the big-picture and for implementing meaningful prevention strategies at a population level.
To predict the future burden of obesity, researchers leveraged secondary data from the 2013-14 Canadian Community Health Survey, then entered it in the OPoRT, a model which estimates population trajectories of obesity. OPoRT then uses risk factor information from the Canadian Community Health Survey to predict the 10-year risk of obesity among adults 18 and older.
Findings
The study found that the predicted burden of obesity is expected to grow from 261 cases per 1000 in 2013/14 to 326 cases per 1000 in 2023/24, amounting to a total of 8.54 million individuals with obesity. The burden is expected to be highest among men, ages 35-49, among those who are food insecure, and those with multiple chronic conditions. Individuals with multiple health risk behaviours including physical inactivity, heavy drinking, and smoking were more likely to be obese in the next ten years.
Implications of the Tool
This study provides a practical and meaningful way to better understand how the magnitude and distribution of obesity burden in the Canadian population can influence approaches to prevention. Most importantly, prevention efforts can be made that anticipate and are able to effectively mitigate the negative health outcomes for the next wave of at-risk groups.
To read the full study, click here.